Bitcoin is trading roughly 50% below its October record of $126,080, and CryptoQuant sees on-chain signs that a cyclical bottoming process may be starting. The main signal comes from adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss for long-term holders: LTH aNUPL has moved below zero and is weaker than the market-wide measure.
The divergence matters because long-term holders are usually treated as the cohort least sensitive to short-term volatility. CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV notes that a similar structure appeared around previous major cycle lows, when the strongest holders were carrying deeper unrealized stress than the market average after a prolonged decline.
The current reading, however, has not reached the extremes seen in earlier cycles. In prior bottoms, long-term-holder aNUPL moved further into negative territory and stayed there longer before the final low was established. That leaves two broad possibilities: another capitulation leg may still be needed, or stronger institutional demand could allow this cycle to bottom with less damage to older holders.
At the same time, bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold has risen to roughly +0.7 from around -0.9 in early 2026, according to data highlighted by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. That revives the 'digital gold' narrative, but positive correlation is not inherently bullish — two assets can fall together just as easily as they can rise. The more useful question is whether on-chain stress begins to ease as selling pressure is absorbed.